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Campaign 2016: The winners. The losers. What’s happening? Oct 16
Winners and losers in the presidential money race
By Jonathan Swan, Anna Primosch, Harper Neidig – 10/15/15 06:41 PM EDT
Candidates running for president released their quarter three financial statements to the Federal Election Commission on Thursday. Here’s a snapshot of the winners and losers.
WINNERS
Bernie Sanders
People would be forgiven for predicting that a 74-year-old Democratic Socialist from Vermont, who is the only candidate in the race to refuse support from billionaire-funded super-PACs, might have a little trouble raising cash.
But Bernie Sanders has shattered expectations throughout his presidential run and his extraordinary fundraising is yet another example of his ability to defy doubters.
Sanders finds himself at the end of quarter three with $26.5 million cash on hand, which is more than any other candidate in the race besides Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton. Sanders’ fundraising, which is powered by small-dollar donations, is fast catching up to Clinton. The Vermont senator reported raising $26 million in the third quarter, just shy of Clinton’s $28 million. Sanders’ campaign is also spending at a significantly slower rate than Clinton’s which bodes well for the months ahead.
Ben Carson
Another outsider, who has risen unexpectedly to second in national polls of GOP primary candidates, Carson has also stunned pundits with his vast small-donor fundraising operation. The retired neurosurgeon raised $20 million in the third quarter, more than any other Republican presidential candidate.
But Carson is spending a lot to raise a lot. Raising money in small-dollar amounts via direct mail and online – which are the Carson team’s preferred techniques to raise funds – is expensive, and the Carson campaign confirmed that it directed $11 million of the $14 million it spent in the third quarter to fundraising costs.
But despite these sunk costs, Carson’s army of small-dollar donors sets him up well for the future. The wide donor base means he has a reservoir of contributors he can continually tap for further donations as many of these contributors have not come close to exceeding their maximum legal donation of $2,700.
Ted Cruz
Cruz’s campaign raised $12.2 million between July 1 and Sept. 30, and his campaign said it finished the quarter with $13.5 million cash on hand – more than any other Republican candidate.
The Texas senator has received less attention than he is accustomed to this primary season, largely due to the never-ending media presence of a billionaire reality TV celebrity who is leading the Republican field. But over the past six months Cruz has built a fundraising operation that would be the envy of any of his competitors, with the possible exception of Ben Carson.
Cruz’s campaign is spending at a fairly frugal burn rate of just over 50 percent, which compares favorably to Hillary Clinton who spent nearly nine out of every 10 dollars her campaign earned over the last quarter.
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders is catching up both in polls and fundraising, and her campaign is spending at a faster rate and hauling in money at a slower rate than the previous quarter. Yet despite these caveats, it would be difficult to describe Hillary Clinton’s fundraising quarter as anything other than a “winner.”
The Clinton campaign raised $28 million in the recent quarter, more than any other candidate currently running for president. Her “burn rate,” at 89 percent, is high, however, and having built a massive staff and sophisticated technology teams harvesting voters across the United States, Clinton’s team will need to continue a frantic pace of fundraising to avoid laying off staff over the coming months. A candidate’s burn rate is the ratio of spending to income, and is viewed by political operatives as a key indicator of a campaign’s health.
Carly Fiorina
The former Hewlett Packard CEO reported a solid-enough fundraising quarter to prove her candidacy is serious, raising $6.8 million, which is more than a number of candidates whom pundits previously judged more seriously than Fiorina.
The businesswoman is also spending at a reasonably frugal rate – outlaying just $2.2 million and finishing quarter three with $5.5 million cash on hand. It also helps having a super-PAC called CARLY for America, that operates more like an arm of the Fiorina campaign – paying for duties such as staging events – than as an independent group.
Donald Trump
GOP front-runner Donald Trump had a good quarter, raising $3.8 million from the general public for his campaign. The billionaire, who has promised to self-fund his campaign, has had to dip very little into his own pockets so far, spending just $101,000 in the last quarter and about $1.9 million to date. He has benefited more than any other candidate from almost continuous earned media coverage.
MIXED
Jeb Bush
On the face of it, Jeb Bush had a strong fundraising quarter, raising $13.4 million, which is more than any of his Republican competitors besides Carson.
But the pace of Bush’s fundraising has slowed significantly from quarter two, when the Bush team raised nearly $1 million a day for the 15 days after he entered the race near the end of the cycle. Given Bush’s main advantage over his competitors was supposed to be fundraising and given he is lagging at fifth in the polls, this total cannot be judged an unalloyed success.
Marco Rubio, John Kasich and Chris Christie
None of these three establishment candidates was bragging about his quarter three fundraising totals – and there are good reasons for the quietness. With Rubio raising $6 million, Kasich reportedly raising $4.4 million, and Christie raising $4.2 million, all three performed about average compared to candidates in this cycle and in the last presidential campaign. They lag well behind Carson’s $20 million, Bush’s $13.4 million, and Cruz’s $12.2 million.
Looking back at 2012, these three were also beaten by eventual nominee Mitt Romney, who raised $14.2 million in the same quarter of 2011, and Rick Perry who raised $17.2 million.
But Rubio, Kasich, and Christie can reassure nervous supporters that they are still ahead of the previous cycle totals of two candidates who ended up being formidable competitors for the nomination: Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich.
LOSERS
Rand Paul
A year ago today, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul was second in the national polls of likely Republican candidates for president. But since then, his popularity has plummeted, dropping to 2.7 percent and to eighth place among GOP primary contenders in the RealClearPolitics average of national polls.
Paul’s falling popularity has been mirrored by disappointing fundraising, and his third quarter total is not the sign of a first-tier candidate. The Paul campaign raised $2.5 million and spent $4.5 million in the recent quarter – operating at an unsustainable “burn rate” of 180 percent.
Bobby Jindal
Jindal’s press secretary, Shannon Dirmann, tried to put a positive spin on the Republican’s latest fundraising haul, telling The Hill in an email: “This is an election not an auction. We are running a lean mean campaign. We are tied for 5th right now in Iowa and plan to win it on February 1st.”
But Jindal’s dollar figures tell a more sobering story. The Louisiana governor raised $579,000 and spent $832,000 between July 1 and Sept. 30. He finishes the fundraising quarter with just $261,000 in the bank, and he does not have a well-funded super-PAC that can spend lavishly on his behalf.
Rick Perry
When former Texas Gov. Rick Perry quit the race on Sep. 11, there were rumors that his campaign was running low on cash. How low, exactly, was unclear, but the financial report released on Thursday reveals Perry’s team was next to broke.
Perry’s campaign had about $45,000 cash on hand at the end of the reporting period — which covered from July 1 to Sept. 30 — and the candidate was spending at a vastly faster rate than he was earning.
Team Perry raised just $287,000 in the third quarter and spent $1.1 million during the same period.
NO SHOWS
Among those who had not reported as of 6:30 p.m. Thursday: Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum; former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R); Sen. Lindsey Graham, and on the Democratic side, former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley.
Campaign 2016: The winners. The losers. What’s happening? Oct 16
Campaign 2016: The winners. The losers. What"s happening? Oct 16
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