New York Values Trump and Hillary Donald Trump has already made his victory speech less than an hour after polls closed in New York. 128,000 votes have gone missing in Brooklyn, Bernie Sanders birthplace. Join Ray for the details right now.
Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton. Where does America go from here?
Mega-Tuesday brought a lot more results than most people realize. One candidate seems unstoppable now for the nomination. But on the other side, the front runner’s party is trying to stop him by hook or by crook.
How reliable are poll numbers? Did they get it right in the five states that voted and what does it mean if they did or didn’t?
Ray will bring it all done for you and then build it back up. Join him now
This is Ray Mossholder.
Donald Trump woke up Tuesday with the good news that he had won 9 delegates from the Northern Mariana Islands. He knew it was going to be a great day for him, and it was. Like the Mississippi River, he just keeps rolling along.
But as much as Tuesday was a great day for the Donald, it was an even far greater day for Hillary Clinton. That was the day that the lady literally burned Bernie’s bridges.
There is now virtually no way for Bernie Sanders to win the Democrat nomination, even with Missouri still not declaring any winners yet.
Does it matter if you vote? You’d better believe it. And the Missouri vote proves it. And it proves it with both parties.
When every vote from every precinct in Missouri was counted, Hillary Clinton defeated Bernie Sanders by 1,531 votes, and Donald Trump beat Ted Cruz by 1,726 votes.
When you think of 1500 to 1700 votes, that might sound like a lot of votes. But it results in both Clinton and Trump’s victories to 0.2% of the entire states vote.
Missouri law declares that any candidate who loses by less than one half of a percentage point to request a recount.
Neither Cruz nor Sanders has requested one yet. And at this moment that means no winner has been declared in the Show Me state.
Missouri Republican Party Chairman John Hancock said the vote in Missouri represents the great divide between those who want a “committed conservative candidate like Ted Cruz and those who want somebody outside the Republican establishment like Donald Trump.”
Hancock added “if we are to have a hope – an expectation of reclaiming the White House in November – healing is the only option on the table.”
Missouri Democratic Party Chairman Roy Temple said he does not expect that there will be a recount among Democrat votes. That’s because a second count wouldn’t change the division of delegates enough to warrant it.
A recount for the Democrats could only put in question at the most 4 delegates.
Besides, Hillary now has enough delegates, considering the states that haven’t voted yet and the Democratic geographics of each state, to easily lock up her nomination for president on the first ballot unless she is locked up first.
For now, local election clerks are deciding whether they will count provisional ballots and accept ballots from overseas voters, votes that largely represent our military.
Hillary Clinton, after all votes in Missouri were counted, is ahead there too by 1500 votes.
For Sanders to get enough delegates to win the nomination, it would require 72% of all remaining votes. As one journalist put it “Bernie has better odds of getting taller.”
Without Missouri, Mrs. Clinton has an almost 300 delegate lead over her male opponent. And those are just her pledged delegates. It doesn’t count her many Super delegates.
Now what I want to do in this segment is to repeat some of what I said in a recent Campaign 2016 report.
I’m doing it in order to show you some really important things.
First, have I just been flipping my lips or has there been substance in these Campaign 2016 reports? You need to know because your time is valuable.
Second, how reliable are political polls? I’m going to compare what the most recent polls predicted before the voting started on Mega-Tuesday with what actually happened in each state after all the votes were counted.
Here’s the beginning of that:
In spite of Marco Rubio winning a caucus in the District of Columbia and Ted Cruz winning the primary in Wyoming, if Marco’s votes are as few as expected, there will be no obvious reason for him to continue.
If John Kasich wins Ohio, he then will become the good old boys poster child.
If Donald Trump wins Ohio should and all the other states today, he may be unstoppable for the nomination on the first ballot at the Republican convention.
The Karl Rove-ites don’t like Ted Cruz and, far more evident, they despise and fear Donald Trump. Will this be the year they hold their nose and vote for Trump? Or is this going to be the year that they blow it?
The Florida primary is a winner take all and offers 99 delegates.
So, let’s see how a consensus of the Florida polls predicted, compared to what actually happened:
The polls said Donald Trump would receive 41% of the vote. In actual fact, Trump received 46% of the vote – a five-point difference in Trump’s favor.
Marco Rubio was projected by the polls to win 28% of the vote. In actual fact, Rubio received 27% of the vote – a one point difference that gave Florida Senator Rubio even less of the vote in his home state.
Ted Cruz was expected by the polls to win 19% of the vote. Senator Cruz ended up with 17% of the vote – a two point difference that gave Cruz less than he was expected to receive.
A consensus of the polls for Florida showed John Kasich receiving 10% – 1 in 10 voting for him. In actual fact Kasich received 7% of the vote, – a three point difference that made Kasich the biggest loser of the four in Florida. (Although Marco Rubio might argue about that!)
Remember the 99 delegates the Republican winner will get in Florida? Well, that’s chicken feed compared to the 214 winner–take-all delegates Hillary or Bernie will get.
And Hillary Clinton has a 99 to 1 chance of winning in Florida.
The Florida polls came very close with this one. The polls said Hillary would receive 65% of the vote, she actually received 64% of the vote, but who can quibble with that?
Bernie was supposed to get 31% of the vote. He did two percentage points better and ended up with 33% of the vote – 1 out of 3 voting for him.
A couple of days ago, I said on Campaign 2016 “Right now it appears that John Kasich is going to trump Trump in Ohio. In fact, Kasich’s odds of winning are 80 to 1 in the state where he is governor.”
John Kasich says that he will suspend his campaign unless he does win Ohio where he is governor.
Governor Kasich got, ironically, a strong endorsement from a candidate still in the race. Marco Rubio urged Ohioans with Robo calls to vote for John Kasich. That’s how far Rubio was willing to go to stop the Donald.
Here’s what you need to realize. If Donald Trump isn’t first in Ohio, no matter how well he does in all of their states that haven’t voted yet, it will be very hard for him to reach the delegate count that he has to have in order to be the nominee on the first ballot at the Republican convention.
And that’s taking into consideration his probability of Trump winning all three other states.
Here’s how it actually went in Ohio:
As the polls predicted, John Kasich won the state where he is governor. The polls said Kasich would win with 39 1/2% of the vote. In actual fact, Kasich won with 47% of the vote. The polls were quite a way off on that prediction.
Kasich won by a 7 1/2% increase over what the polls said he would.
Donald Trump was expected to receive 33% of the vote in Ohio. But he received 36% of the vote. A 3% increase, which meant he, right along with the governor, did better by quite a bit than was expected.
Ted Cruz was predicted by the polls to get 20% of the vote. But the polls were way off again. Cruz got only 13% of the vote. That’s a 7% decrease from what the polls predicted.
Marco Rubio, the polls said, would get 6% of the vote, but when the votes were counted the Florida Senator got only 3% of the vote – half as many fewer than the polls predicted.
Polls give Hillary Clinton a 95 to 1 chance of winning Ohio where 93 delegates are proportioned according to district winners and fifty delegates will be handed to the state winner.
Bernie Sanders is a man of big surprises. Ohio sits right next to Michigan where he has already won. Why wouldn’t he win Ohio too?
Also, Ohio is a crossover state, meaning that every voter can choose to vote Democrat or Republican in this primary. So there could be many Republicans who would crossover and vote for Bernie with the hope of stopping Hillary Clinton.
A recent Quinnipiac poll of Ohio showed a 43% approval rating from Democrats for John Kasich. So there could be many Democrats crossing over to vote for Kasich with the hope of stopping Donald Trump.
So, how did the polls and the actual statewide results compare for the two Democrat candidates?
Hillary, according to the polls, was to receive 55% of the vote. She did better than that, gaining 2% more with 57% of the vote.
Bernie did a tad bit better too, even though he lost to her – polls predicted he’d get 42% of the vote, he got 43%.
Before any voting, I said “Illinois offers 69 delegates. The odds of Donald Trump winning Illinois are 63 to 1.
Follow me closely as I describe the uniqueness of today’s vote in Illinois.
So, how did that work out?
Trump was predicted to receive 33% of the vote in Illinois. Once again, the Donald outdid himself with 39% of the vote – a six percentage point increase.
Ted Cruz, the polls said, would receive 28 1/2%. But when the votes were counted in Illinois, he did a little better too with 30% of the vote.
John Kasich was predicted to be third in Illinois and he was. The polls had him at 20% and he actually got 20% of the vote. Right on.
But Marco Rubio didn’t come close to what the polls said. They had him at 17%. The polls missed it by 8%, as Marco ended up with 9%.
Before the vote, I said “Illinois doesn’t look much better for Bernie. With 156 delegates that are distributed by districts, Hillary has a 90 to 1 chance to win
The latest poll shows Hillary winning 52% of the vote to Bernie’s 44%. However, Bernie might surprise everybody with Illinois.
Last week a highly respected YouGov poll showed Bernie Sanders winning Illinois by 2%. That’s squeaky close and a long way from 52 to 44.
I’d rather climb a pole than trust one.”
Hillary received a little less in the polls said she would. Instead of 52%, she got 50% of the vote.
Bernie, according to YouGov, might beat Hillary in Illinois.
But in spite of doing 5% better than the other polls predicted, Bernie was one point behind her.
He ended up with 49% of the vote.
Now we go to North Carolina that offers the Republican winner a portion of 72 delegates, depending on how each district in the state votes.
Donald Trump’s odds for winning North Carolina are 89 to 1. But that’s the thing about polls. Ted Cruz could still win in North Carolina.
Nothing is certain, but death and taxes!
How big a piece will be determined by the actual final count.
So, how did the polls do in predicting the outcome in North Carolina?
They said Trump would win with 43% of the vote. Trump did win, but only by 40% of the vote – 3% less than anticipated.
Ted Cruz, the polls said, would win second place with 33% of the vote. But Cruz did much better than that with 37% of the vote – 4% more than anticipated.
Once more we come to a candidate whose poll numbers and the vote count agreed. The polls said John Kasich would be third in North Carolina with 13% of the vote. He was.
Marco Rubio, the polls said, would be last with 9 1/2% of the vote. But he did even worse. He was last and he ended up in North Carolina with only 8% of the vote – a 1 1/2% decrease.
The polls said for the Democrats in North Carolina, a state with a large black vote, Hillary has a 99% chance of beating Bernie.
North Carolina is a state where 70 delegates are districted out and thirty-seven delegates are given directly to the winner.
The latest polls show Hillary getting 61% of the vote and Bernie Sanders 38%.
Hillary did win but received 6% less than the polls predicted – 55% of the vote.
Bernie did four percentage points better than the polls predicted. He got 41% of the vote and still lost.
And about the state that is still too close to call, even though every vote in the state has been counted – Missouri.
I said before the voting that Missouri has had very little polling done there. And here’s where Ted Cruz could shine.
52 delegates are up for grabs. Most of them are awarded by congressional district.
Cruz has won in Iowa to Missouri’s north and Kansas to Missouri’s west. He also came in a close second in Arkansas, which is to Missouri’s south.
There is a good chance of a delegate split in Missouri. Then Trump might surprise.
Donald Trump is first place after the first statewide vote count in a “too close to call.”
Polls predicted a .1% difference between Trump and Cruz. It’s actually .2% following the first count. Yet both men have 41% each.
That’s .2% above the polls predictions for Donald Trump and .3% better than the polls said Ted Cruz would do.
Trump is at this moment 1,726 votes ahead of Cruz, and odds are strong that there will be a recount of all ballots cast.
The very same “To close to call” declaration has been made for Hillary and Bernie.
The polls predicted the Democrat race was “To close to call”. It is. Hillary has 50% of the vote and Sanders 49%.
That’s a statewide difference of just 1,531 votes.
What have we learned about political polls and whether they can be trusted?
Although the polls can be off by several percentage points, they are usually good indicators of how people will do in a political race.
I used to have a high school teacher who said “Figures never lie unless liars figure”.
Polls can be tampered with, made wrong on purpose, and be totally unreliable.
And no matter how large the demographic the survey company reaches for any survey, the vast majority aren’t participating who will matter at the time of the election.
Then, too, people can change their minds at the last minute – even change them of the voting booth.
That’s why you should never feel led to vote because of what polls say.
But here’s the interesting thing. In every case, including Missouri, the polls did pinpoint how each candidate would place in any particular state.
First, second, third and fourth were called correctly by the polls .
It’s also impressive that the polls were right about Rubio losing in Florida and Kasich winning in Ohio.
So, although you can’t totally depend on the percentage points, political polls do usually become reasonable indicators of final results.
Now comes the most important part. How many delegates did each candidate gain following Mega Tuesday? Well, the jury is still out in Missouri.
But Florida gave all 99 delegates to Donald Trump.
John Kasich got all 66 delegates in Ohio.
Illinois gave 52 delegates to Donald Trump, 9 delegates to Ted Cruz, and 8 delegates to John Kasich. Marco Rubio didn’t qualify with enough votes to receive any delegates there.
Finally, in North Carolina, Donald Trump received 29 delegates; Ted Cruz received 27 delegates; John Kasich received 9 delegates; and Marco Rubio got six.
So here are the totals of delegates gained – Donald Trump 189; John Kasich 83; Ted Cruz 36; and the now suspended Marco Rubio 6
Now, let me tell you something not to make you angry, but to motivate you to action.
I’ve talked often about the Karl Rove-ites, the Republican elite who are oober–rich, who are not only in complete control of the Republican Party, but hand-in-hand with the Democrat leadership who are as oober-rich as they are, they control of Congress and the American government.
They don’t want you to decide who the president should be in spite of all the campaigning. That’s what both parties have a delegate system that after the first vote at each convention can be brokered into whatever the good old boys want. Donald Trump wants to break all of that up and give America back to the people.
Whether he can do that will be decided by the states that have not yet voted, and the people in them who want to return America to a democracy.
You are about to see dirty tricks, outright lies, phony scandals, and vicious attacks becoming a daily routine to get Donald Trump from having enough delegates to win on the first ballot at the convention.
That will turn it into a brokered convention and whether it’s Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan, John Kasich, or someone else, Donald Trump will be denied the nomination.
I am not endorsing Donald Trump. But I am for honest government and a change in the way it does business.
We as Americans are teetering on the edge of oblivion if we allow the corruption to continue any further.
America, please wake up before it’s too late. Please.
And finally… Lots of women enjoy carrying an alligator bag. But there is a lady in Lakeland, Florida, that has carried this several steps further.
She has a 6 foot long pet alligator in her home.
This isn’t something new. She has kept Rambo (that’s the alligator’s name) in her home for eleven years. And she swears it has never eaten anyone.
Conservationists and wildlife officials are now saying that to keep an alligator like Rambo, or any other alligator, requires 2.5 acres of land.
Mary Thorn, the alligator’s housekeeper, says that no amount of land would do Rambo any good. It seems her alligator is extremely sensitive to sunlight.
Thorn takes Rambo to schools and charity events to teach people about alligators. She says she has trained him not to bite.
I’ve been trying to figure out how a person teaches an alligator not to bite.
Florida wildlife commission spokesman, Gary Morse, says Thorn’s case is under investigation. He is taking into consideration she has had the alligator with her for eleven years.
However, it has not yet been determined whether she can keep Rambo or have to tell her precous pet “See you later, alligator!”
This is Ray Mossholder from the Reach More Now Campaign 2016 news desk in Fort Worth, Texas. And the race goes on.
Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton. Where does America go from here?
Imagine that you were a debater and the debate was being broadcast over international television. You and your opponent come onto the stage, but suddenly two other well-known debaters come on stage too. And when the debate begins, the two debaters to either side of you begin heckling you and denying everything you say. Meanwhile, the other debater has no one heckling him. The debate goes on for two full hours and you have a very hard time making your points because you are interrupted so often by the two hecklers. How would you look to those watching?
I’ve just described last night’s Republican debate. You would be Donald Trump. The hecklers who would also be running for president – Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio – who contradicted Trump time and time again, while, when he could get a word in edge wise, he showed them where they were wrong. To those watching the debate whether in the audience or over TV, the three candidates looked like they were having a food fight. And that’s why John Kasich could say at one point in the debate “I’ve been called ‘the only adult on the GOP debate stage”.
Put yourself in the shoes of Donald Trump. What would you do in his same position. Of course, Cruz and Rubio are desperately trying to climb with the voters so that one of them will be elected president. The real question is: Do they both have to act like barking dogs in order to do it? Could you stand on a stage in front of millions of people while two of them yelled in your ears while you were trying to talk? Ted Cruz went so far as to mock Donald Trump by telling him “Just take a deep breath Donald. Take a deep breath.” Cruz didn’t see that just one time, but on two different occasions. After the second time, Marco Rubio mocked “I want to speak when the yoga session is over!”
I started looking at the Fox News website following last night’s debate. It’s bylines were rude to only one candidate. It has banners like “Trump deflects Fox’s questions; rivals fail to capitalize in Detroit.” Here’s another: “A rattled Trump debates in Detroit: Kasich, Cruz, are nights winners.” And still another: “Trump shocks and entertains at debate. But are voters growing tired of the circus act?” Then I began looking at the other news sources. They are all attacking Trump. I don’t know about you, but it makes me angry when someone is picked on unfairly while others who were even more guilty get off Scott free.
At the beginning of last night’s debate, Donald Trump made reference to the crude remark Marco Rubio made to his rally crowd on Wednesday – a remark that I shared with you on Wednesday’s newscast, about the size of the Donald’s hands. But Rubio didn’t stop there. He very clearly pointed to below his own belt and indicated that Donald Trump had another part of his anatomy that was tiny. When Mister Trump made mention of the fact that Marco was wrong about both his hands and other parts, in interviews afterward among Fox news anchors, they blamed the Donald for making a crude joke last night. Marco got no blame at all for his crude joke that prompted Donald Trump’s response.
Bill O’Reilly made the remark following the debate that he has never seen anything like this in all of his thirty-five years in television news. I can extend that. I’ve never seen anything like it in my much longer lifetime. Whether Donald Trump ends up the Republican nominee or not, he is being unfairly treated by his two hecklers on stage, by the news anchors interviewing him last night, on many news channels and talkshows, and by much of the rest of the mass media. Why? Mitt Romney made it extremely clear today. Mitt, speaking at the University of Utah, sounded like he wanted to get into the food fight too. What needs to be understood is that Mitt Romney is now a Republican good old boy – a Karl Rove-ite – ready to play one of the dirtiest roles ever in the Republican Party. That group, with Mitt as their superstar, wants to replace Trump with Mitt at the Republican Convention in July. It is dirty politics at its very lowest and the only way that Donald Trump can be assured of having enough delegates by the time the convention comes, so that he isn’t replaced, is to win solidly for the next two weeks.
What the Republican leadership is proving is that they have absolutely no care at all about what American voters want to put in office. They want to elect someone they know they can control . You don’t matter to them, however you vote.
Today we received in the mail a letter from the Republican National Committee asking for a donation. They also asked for a stamp to be put on their envelope so that it would save them the money for that. Georgia wrote in the letter that she sent back to them “You won’t get a dime from me until you quit attacking Donald Trump.” Oh, and she didn’t put a stamp on the envelope, so they will pay for it. You don’t have to be for Donald Trump to do that. You just have to be for honest elections. I highly recommend you do the same thing the next time you get anything in the mail from the Grand Old Party.
I promise to keep you posted on all of this.
For now, there are several stories breaking this morning about the 2012 loser, Mitt Romney. Although he will not have appeared in any of the debates this year, Romney wants another try for the Oval Office while totally skipping the debates. Mitt’s closest advisers are working on changing Republican convention rules so that he can step in as the hero and send Donald Trump packing.
Donald Trump needs 1,237 delegates to lock up the nomination. Romney is absolutely dedicated to seeing but that never happens. Romney has already stated too that again he wants House Speaker Paul Ryan as his running mate again.
Yesterday Mitt Romney lashed out at Trump and urged voters to vote for anyone but him. Romney said if he were voting in Florida, he would definitely vote for Marco Rubio. Romney will not stop there, but you can count on seeing him say anything and everything to stop the needed delegates to vote for Trump. Mitt sounded like he was already pulling all stops when he said “His bankruptcies have crushed small businesses and the men and women who worked for them. He inherited his business, he didn’t create it. And whatever happened to Trump Airlines? How about Trump University? And then there’s Trump Magazine and Trump Vodka and Trump Steaks, and Trump mortgage? A business genius he is not.” … For a different look at what Mitt Romney said, go to reachmorenow.com’s front page or Reach More Now YouTube’s playlist and find the latest Larry and Ray Show titled Donald Trump and the 2016 Campaign.
Until we Americans wake up and realize the corruption that is happening before our eyes, the corruption will grow worse and worse until our nation is destroyed. Mitt Romney proves the point. It’s way past time for all of us to open our windows and shout those words from the movie Network: I’m mad as hell, and I won’t take this anymore!” And for those of you who think Christians shouldn’t talk about what, just take a look at Jesus when he went into God’s Temple and overturned the money changers. Righteous anger is always right.
Since I’ve gone that far, if you watched the debate have you been wondering what that white spot was on Ted Cruz’s lip about twenty minutes after the debate got started? England’s newspaper says it came from his nose and that he ate it. Twitter has gone viral ever since. My favorite tweet was from a man named Dan Rollins who tweeted Donald Trump “Please remind Ted Cruz to say grace this morning. He clearly forgot to last night before he ate that booger.”
This is Ray Mossholder from the Reach More Now news desk in Fort Worth, Texas, with Campaign 2016. More by this evening. Until then, have a beautiful day.
